Politics – March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a close battle for support among likely Texas primary voters, while Clinton leads Obama in Ohio, an American Research Group Inc. poll shows.
Well being an outsider I am always amazed at all the polls taken in the US.
Now on Tuesday we will see if polls are even close to what they suggest, probably not
Polls are like weather forecasts. When they are correct, we tend to forget them, when they are wrong, we remember them forever. Who can forget the infamous "Dewey Beats Truman" headline?
I NEVER put any stock in polls, you put it well, much like weather forcasts.
I wouldn't go that far. I think polls, just like weather forecasts, are generally and broadly, correct. Certainly not perfect and certainly completely wrong from time to time, but it should be obvious both polls and weather forecasts work most of the time or they wouldn't be so widely used.
I was just going by our weather forcasts here, LOL! They are never right.
I think both are good for pointing out trends, but like any tool, they fail when used incorrectly. Both polls and weather forecasts become less accurate the further in time predictions are made and both fail to be accurate when it comes to specifics, hence 'margins of errors'. I do think more political pollsters could stand to take on some of the humbleness I see in most weather forecasters and point out those margins a bit more than they do.
So, while I may watch the weather and take their word that it will be sunny tomorrow, I also have a backup umbrella packed in my car.
I agree, but as a political junkie, I do enjoy reading them.
The polling data over the last 48 hours clearly shows a trend in Hillary Clinton's favor. It appears that Obama may have peaked last week. Some local pollng in Ohio now shows that Hillary could carry the state by 5 to 12 percentage points. That would be pretty impressive. In Texas, the polls that last week showed obama up by 3 or 4 points now show it even. Many pundits are saying her SNL appearance and the 3AM ad is having an effect.
...just remember...forecast and poll = guess
If that was true, "Dewey Beats Truman" type headlines, wouldn't be the exception, they would be the rule.
How many contests have we had this primary? How many "Dewey" headlines have there been? The only one I can think of is the NH race with Hillary over Obama. If polls were just guessing, at least half of the contests would be completely wrong.
Now, when a contest is so close that it's within the margin of error, as many of the dem contests have been, then your're right, it does come down to anybody's guess.
The one problem with the polls in Texas is that during the primary the key is delegates. And delegates in the Democratic Primary in Texas are based on the percentage of democrat votes in the districts in 2006 elections. Therefore the same number of votes in two different districts can mean two different amounts of delegates. Note this article:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idU...
Clinton continues to hold a big lead among the state's sizable bloc of Hispanics and has an edge in the state's heavily Hispanic south and conservative west. Obama is strong in the cities, but the two have battled back-and-forth in east Texas and now run even there.
Interestingly enought the Districts where Obama is stronger, have higher delegate counts. From the commercials they are running, it appears that the 6:45 caucus times Hillery is calling for means they may hijack and move the caucuses.
I think there is a certain percentage of poll responders who just want to take the poll takers for a ride, and give answers to questions that may be far off the mark.
Take a state like Texas. Do you think a Texan worth her/his salt is going to tell the pollster what s/he thinks about the candidates?
The correct answer-"none of your business"-gets converted to a more palatable 5 or 6 on a ten-point scale!
And if someone like Carl Rove is involved in preparing the questionnaire, he can skew it any way he wants!
I can tell you who is going to win Texas and Ohio primaries, but to keep you guessing, I am going to say "It will be either Obama or Hillary!
Well I'll just say that either of them should be better than Bush.
The one I wanted is no longer in the race. So we are stuck with these two.
One with little experience the other with a husband who was judged more for his extra marital affair than his good work in office.
Yes he made some mistakes NAFTA being the worst one in my eyes.
But compared to Bush. Well there is no comparison Bush is beyond words to exlain his terrible reign.
If Hillary wins in Texas, and Ohio, and I cannot imagine her losing those two, it is a whole new ballgame. We would have to ask Barak Obama if he'd step down, because you know that is what they were going to ask Hillary to do. No one wins until someone gets 2,025 delegates. There are several more state primaries to go. Obama is just a little too eager for my taste. He really thinks the coronation is right around the corner.
ANIOKLY:
"We would have to ask Barak Obama if he'd step down, because you know that is what they were going to ask Hillary to do."
Firstly, Obama has won 24 of the 35 contests (68.5%) thus far. Even if he were to lose Texas and Ohio, he would still have won 24 of the 37 (64.9%) of the contests. And unless Hillary wins by a landslide in BOTH Texas and Ohio (unlikely), the delegate lead is unlikely to change.
You do know there are 50 states in this country? And I am sure you know neither Barak Obama does not have the necessary 2,025 delegates, right? Then there is no reason for Hillary to stop campaigning until it is over.
ANIOKLY:
"Then there is no reason for Hillary to stop campaigning until it is over."
You do know that I never said Hillary should stop campaigning? Where in my post did I say Hillary should stop campaigning. Go ahead and QUOTE MY EXACT WORDS, if you can.
Likewise, there's no reason for Huckabee to stop campaigning and no reason for even Romney to stop campaigning. It sounded like many Republicans would have liked to see Romney fight on a little longer, and he would have if he wasn't such a coward and flipflopper.
Once again, you are NOT a registered Democrat and therefore have NO say in the inner workings of the party. You would be better off concentrating on your own candidate because from the looks of the Democratic fundraising and voter turnout thus, McCain is going to be in a lot of trouble come November.
LOL
Secondly, what's this "we would have to ask Barak Obama if he'd step down" business? You're not a registered Democrat, and you have no say in the inner workings of the Democratic Party. I suggest you stick to advising your own party. From the looks of the disparity between McCain and the Democrats in fundraising AND voter turnout, you have your hands full with problems in your own party anyway. Or have you already forgotten?
http://politics.propeller.com/story/2008/02/29/...
You and the other neocons must be really scared to run against Obama. LOL. Just a few months ago, your war cry was "Anyone but Hillary." But now that Obama has shown to be an even more formidable candidate, you've largely ignored Hillary, are ready to ask Obama to step down, and are stubborn in your attempts to muckrake and swiftboat Obama.
It's not going to work. It only makes you look all the more desperate.
vbd- It would be easier to run against Obama. We know all about Hillary.
When the same depth of information comes out about Obama and the oration is peeled aside, the fall will be greater because he has been pumped up so high.
In your dreams! If there was anything truly earth shattering about Obama, it would have come out long before now because the desparados have already examined every orifice and the best they can come up with is: he doesn't have enough experience (does, too!), he goes to that Black church that's committed to Africa (duh), his middle name's Hussein (yeegads!! like he named himself!).
KLARISSA:
"When the same depth of information comes out about Obama and the oration is peeled aside, the fall will be greater because he has been pumped up so high."
By all means, KLARISSA, if you have physical, irrefutable, damning evidence on Obama, then post away and I'll condemn him along with the rest of you. However, the fact remains that until this point Obama has NEVER been indicted or investigated for corruption (the way McCain was during the Keating 5 scandal).
Enough of your unsubstantiated allegations. It's time for you to put up or shut up. Where's your evidence?
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FTA:
Clinton, a New York senator, and Obama, an Illinois senator, are tied with 47 percent support each among Texas voters, the poll conducted Feb. 29-March 1 found. A similar poll taken Feb. 27-28 had Obama leading 51-44 percent.
Tight race.
i hope the msm actually covers the tx caucueses tues eve.....i think it will be great way to keep the "blackboxes" that count our votes honest
A bit more recent poll contradicts the above
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1460
It is essential that Clinton cannot win enough delegates even if she wins both states due to the way they are distributed. It will be immediatelly reversed in the next 2 states. This poll suggests that in fact she could lose both. If people vote based on a comedy show then i can understand the election of Bush twice even better now...Clinton is a good student of the machiavellian republican school. Fear and lower instincts to replace optimism , confidence and self consistency. How pathetic indeed that she took this road. She would have done a lot better if she accepted responsibility for errors and avoided taking politically correct or popular at the time positions while sacrificing her integrity. She will now pay for that because ultimately people can separate the difference between someone that is trying to expoploit their instincts and one that is encouraging their intellect.
Regarding such polls one must understand that in close races the relative error is like 4%. This means its typical to have something register at 47% and then the same day in an other sample 45% or 49%. A great number of polls will in fact disagree with each other even if they represent the same correctly choosen samples (which itself is a tremendously difficult task)
Personally i refuse to trust polls where the error is that large and the things they try to measure do not differ by over 2 standard deviations.
Just to give you an idea why i say that. In general in a binary process that one outcome occurs with probability p and its opposite with q (p q=1) the standard deviation of the total that registers as p is (p*q*N)^(1/2) where N is the size of the sample.
This is how you get the relative error (q/p/n)^(1/2) (n=600 here )of 4% for p. Its 4% of the ~50% for each p,q in a close race so 2%sd for each. This means 95% of the time you will find something between 4% & -4%.
If a Democrat wins, and if I can't have Biden, I'd prefer Hillary.
Well, if if's and but's were candy and nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas.
OMG, i worked with a guy 30 years ago who said that all the time. in the 30 years since ive never heard any1 else use it. when i do, people look at me like im crazy....
It looks like the Dems are becoming as polarizing as Bush & the neocons are. 85% of Blacks support Obama & 70% of Hispanics are supporting Clinton. There is one catagory however I have not yet saw percentages on but I suspect 99% of the Muslims (7 million strong) favor B. Hussein Obama. I'm therefore in the Clinton camp!
Hey brainless please explain why any muslim would support a christian who has been a christian all his life.
Get a life and stop your attempt to spread crude innacurate rumors for political purposes. Thats the old way and the old ways are going out this time around.
Hey brainwashed! If rational cannot stop this in Texas & Ohio I predict this snowballing effect will lead the "change crowd" down a path that they never expected or intended.
these polls always contradict each other, which one are we to believe?