Politics – NBC News declared Barack Obama as the projected winner in the Mississippi primary on Tuesday, the latest in a string of racially polarized contests across the Deep South and a final tune-up before April's high-stakes race with Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania.
After all primaries are over Clinton not only will prove unable to close the gap but in fact the current gap will increase for Obama and the superdelegates will also have decided the direction to end everything well in advance of the convention.
I project Obama will collect about 2100 before the convention based on the trend of superdelegates so far and the remaining primaries. Some have already offered preference and as the contest finishes more of them will have declared it according to remaining results. He wont be able to collect enough pledged delegates but the total based on the superdelegates that have declared will cover easily 2025 making the end game clear probably as soon as 2 months from now. He will only need to collect 35% of the superdelegates that have yet to clarify preference to get over 2025. This is almost a done deal and there are no more miracles for Clinton left.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/pr...
I dont even understand why all this effort for Pennsylvania is taking place. I mean even if she could win by 20% it wouldnt even secure a 30 del. move . It is not a last stand or a turning point or whatever you want to call it. It is stupid to continue this unless the logic is that a big scandal or a world event or an accident or a crime or whatever unlikely occurence is supposed to take place. She cant cover it even if she won by 25% diff. all remaing races. It is unbelievably stupid to continue all this mainly because she will not be able to even win by 10% all remaining races. Add to that new elections in Florida and Michigan and she will still be behind in everything. Is she planning to hijack the results and alter them by force? She cant win, all she can do is secure they both lose at this point by polarizing people further. Why cant she see that and rise up for the benefit of her country? Where is her 3am realism and experience here? Is this how she deals in a crisis?
I am restating those numbers because i cant understand why it is not all entirely obvious by now. I mean mathematically yes it is possible to create a scandal or a criminal act that will eliminate the opponent and change everything. But this is not a realistic scenario. This is a disaster anticipation scenario and a realist must not operate that way when what they all stand to lose is far more important in probability terms than the unlikely 0.1% scandal or accident/crime. In other words fighting to death has no tangible utility value for the party or her because of what the implied loss due to polarization can mean later.
A realist, a decent strategist that operates for Clinton here has only the following best case trajectory.
1. Win re-election in Florida and Michigan and win the first with 15% and the second tie at best .
2. Win the remaining primaries with 5-10% average (due to some momentum radical shift.
All this is still not enough to secure 50%. So what is the idea?
Gee and they didn't hire you as a consultant? Hmmm you must be missing something Grasshopper.
I am not in the business of being hired by people i dont care to respect for a moment. If i had to advice Clinton how to play her election ambitions i would start 7 years ago and i would suggest her to ;
1. Declare she has the intention to run for the white house eventually and present the reasons for doing so as early as 2001. Be upfront with what the media fed the people for years . Be straight about the desire and that way alter it from ambition to a long term project with objectives that would improve the country. Explain that in order to do so she needed to further study the mechanis of WDC by producing personal work as senator and gaining working experience and proving that way herself worth of the ultimate idea. That she wanted to be tested first . She never did that . People hate having the feeling of a forced inevitable long term plan that nobody ever awknowledges its the final objective but all know its coming . Its patronizing!
2. I would advice her to methodically study all that was wrong with the direction the country was taking under Bush leadership and convert her to a very vocal critic of that trajectory , that way gaining the support the soul of the democratic party. She never proved one of them! Why? Because in the end she is not ! She doesnt have what it takes. I would have her consistently battle the administration in environment, Iraq attack plans, Iraq war itself after the invasion , Afghanistan campaign's partial failure, international diplomacy/security failures, international respect collapse, energy policy, science and technology priority failures, education of kids failure, medical insurance failure, human rights violations, freedoms exploited under patriot act ,economy collapse, currency failure, real estate bubble, you name it ! Where was she in all those issues? Safely away at a distance trying not to alienate the centrist republican voters for as long as the president was semi popular.
3. Additionally once the time was right and the campaign had really started i would place emphasis on how the campaign was handled. First at financial level creating a grass roots movement with focus on the young people and all those that felt their country betrayed by Bush (new voters). You obviously cant do that if you are one of them that enabled the guy and never truly went after him directly and effectively. During the campaign i would have her be entirely positive and always on message , away from personal attacks. I would have her criticize Obama not on a nasty simplistic level but by presenting the people well defined examples of how her experience is superior. That way the attack at him would be a legitimate one guided by positive messages . I would stay away from any smear effort , any nastyness amd always maintain a high road of optimism and idealism. That way i would remove the edge from Obama in that field where clearly he has monopolized and rightfully so.
4. I would tell her to stay away from any racial polarizing messages and offer respect to her opponent and made it a battle of ideas not one of colors or old vs new. I would paint her as forever young, totally idealistic, not machiavellian, not calculating, not safe but always bold and eager to risk mass approval for a higher principle if that principle truly served those very masses ultimately. I would certainly never tell her to offer vp job from position 2 as its an insult to intelligent people. I would do my best to make her look different than all the men presidents before her and place emphasis on her integrity, positive messages, unifying efforts . I would clearly have her stay away from the tough cold lady image. This hints to a dark side. A Cheney like side. I would make it a priority to distance her from such parallelism as much as possible. The first woman president should be indeed an ethically inspiring figure. She never placed emphasis on self consistent ethical conduct.
Maybe my love for the purity and universally positive messages of physics research would never allow me to get dirty as a campaign strategist needs to be but my analytical thinking would secure Clinton a higher probability among voters if any of what i said was implemented. Do i look naive to you ? Do i deserve your sarcastic grashopper joke? Maybe i do deserve it from someone that finds Clinton inspiring . I wouldnt expect in fact anything more than sarcasm. Its extremelly fitting to where you or she are coming from apparently . A place of cynicism that has long ago betrayed any optimistic , ethically inspiring sense of fair play .
She would have been well serverd to have hired you for that advice. But advice is a noun, not a verb. She probably would want someone else for a speech writer -- like me?
Absolutely lol, i meant to say to advise (verb) vs offer advice :-) (childish, I mix those 2 up ). I knew i didnt like it myself and was too lazy to look it up . Remain confident if i had to deliver a perfect spelling text lazyness would not be an issue. Probably a good idea to use browsers with dictionary and spelling correcting capability like say netscape 9 . Thanks.
Ok from the last CNN report (13 March) Clinton had the wide majority of Superdelegates. She lost one - Gov. of NY ...who knows what happens to his vote? Then there's FL & MI whose earlier votes were for Clinton ...so it's still up in the air.
All the conjecture in the world means nothing.
IMHO if comes down to John McCain and Barak Husein Obama ...the new President and still the old party will be McCain. If it comes to McCain vs. clinton ...the Clinton team (best Cabinett ever...) will take it. Then hopefully, she can do what her husband did as the only President in the history of the US did, leave our bottom line in the black ...and heavens to betsy ...with a surplus - for the next Repugnican Prezzie to waste & embezzle in private corporations. AMEN
Here is the bottom line, but Clinton has such a high level of desire she cannot really see what has happened.
Of the states Clinton won California, New York, Massachussets, and New Jersey will go democratic no matter who the nominee.
Of the states Obama won most of them were the red states last two times of which several must change to let the democrats win in 08.
I don't think she can carry those states as the nominee, but if Obama can carry a handfull along with those we all know will end up democratic then he can win the election while she cannot.
Problem is her sense of entitlement won't let her see the reality and quit now to come back another time. The Clintons would rather try to destroy their party instead of ensuring a win, because only a democrat loss will allow them to come back again in four years. In part this is what they did to Kerry and Gore so that she didn't have to face an incumbent democrat this year.
All the way to 1600 Penn Ave on 1/20/2009 for Obama. Hillary believes that she is entitled to the nomination just because she is a "Clinton" and running a nasty and negative campaign. Her whole campaign has been finding faults with Obama and nothing about her qualifications.
Sooner she gets dumped, better for the party.
Yeah ...Cliff Notes instead of reading ...that's why you should leave the voting to people who undestand the logic and not become emotional and illogical.
Obama didn't even know how to make the first move in "getting out of Iraq. Go read it on his website...then read how she'll do it. Do you think you can be objective instead of being one of the mass lemmings? You'll see that its Cliff Notes vs the full novel. You guess who is what. Just stop all this bloede getue....
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink. You can tell people that no Shiite will change his belief in the succession to Mohammed; and no Sunni to the Caliph procedures ...so Iraq will never have peace. However, just as strong as the Iraqis beliefs are, there is hope ....
Just as soon as you Baptists agree to acknowledge the Pope as the head of your sect ...that will be the day that the Shiites and Sunnis stop violence towards each other and become Jeffersonian Democracy believers & followers!!!! What????
Never???
But it must be possible? That's why we as ugly & misinformed Americans are sacrificing our troops. It's for the greater good!!!!
Clinton was attending a presidential forum in Washington on Wednesday. Obama planned to be in his hometown of Chicago.
Obama was winning roughly 90 percent of the black vote but only about one-third of the white vote, extending a pattern that carried him to victory in earlier primaries in South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana. Do i look naive to you ? Do i deserve your sarcastic grashopper joke? Maybe i do deserve it from someone that finds Clinton inspiring . I wouldnt expect in fact anything more than sarcasm. Its extremelly fitting to where you or she are coming from apparently .
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34)
Vote
Final margin was 61% to 37%. A pretty impressive win. The exit polling showed that 13% of the voters in this contest declared themselves as republicans. This group overwhelmingly went for Hillary Clinton 75% to 25%. I think we all know what is up with that.
Now its on to Pennsylvania on April 22nd. Watch out...it was the kitchen sink first...I look for the bathtub to be ripped out and tossed next.
Those Republicans who voted for Hillary are likely dittoheads inspired by their overlord, Rush. No other good explanation. A Mississippi Republican voting for Hillary Clinton? You wont see a one of them doing this in the general election.
I still think Hillary will get the nomination because of her party ties and the weight of the Clinton legacy. This will be a complete disaster for the party and in turn America. This will allow the third term for a Republican who espouses and whose foreign policy will be driven by neocon idealogy.
I think you are wrong on the nomination. Clintons had a lock on the party previously, but many opposed them and did not like them at all. At this time those folks now have someone else to support and will dump the Clintons like a hot iron since they now have the opportunity.
In fact it is the party leaders who more than the regular members realize nominating clinton will bring out every single republican and independent who does not like the Clintons. Many of those would stay home if Obama was nominated because they really don't want to vote for McCain.
Those in charge of the party structures especially in congress realize this and do all they can to prevent her from getting the nomination because they really want to win the white house and Clinton is the most likely to lose and if they overthrow the people who seem more inclined to Obama it will be like 1968 and Humphrey all over again.
I don't think Hillary gives a flying F about that.
I didn't read anything like this. Where did you get your info?
Like certain parts of the body, everyone has one ...ah opinion that is.
I just thought it was interesting that Osama ...whoops Obama said that the idea that Black folk in Mississippi voted for him because he was black was absurd!!! LOL ...then on CNN Intl. the black people being interviewed said that they voted for him, because he was black.... hmmm the Snakeoil salesman is being fooled or mislead by his own staff???
As I have said, looking and reading the two websites (Clinton & Obama's) One can readily see that the difference between the two candidates is: Clinton can be likened to the full novel ... and Obama to Cliff Notes.
Now that Hillary has already ripped out the kitchen sink, I'd expect less delicate items such as the garbage disposal and the sewer to come flying out of her camp next.
The downside of that strategy over the long haul is that it inevitably leads to a massive buildup of dirty dishes, garbage and steaming excrement in her own camp.
In the long run, kitchen sinks, garbage disposals and toilets might best be kept at hand for what they were actually meant for.