Politics – The Pennsylvania Primary was Hillary Clinton's last chance to deliver a game changing blow to Obama's campaign for the nomination. She failed to deliver. Pennsylvania provided her with her final real opportunity to knock the wheels off the Obama campaign. She needed a crushing victory of 18% to 25% to have any real chance of altering the math...
I agree. This is pretty much where the situation stands. There is no logic in Clinton's 'big state' argument. And if anybody is aware of this, it is the superdelegates.
The Superdelegates, and Dean, Pelosi, and Reid can give the nomination to Obama, but he will have no credibility. Everyone will know he didn't earn it any more then Hillary did. She is right about the "big states." He is unelectable for the same reason Kerry, and Gore were unelectable. The Democrats cannot steal enough votes to elect a 100% Liberal candidate
Obama has huge turn out. He is more electable by the math; if not by the talking heads - they miss more projections than they get correct. Remember they thought this was a slam dunk for Hillary. His choice not to blast on a Fellow Dem is his best choice. Soon as he spanks her, the media will make an even larger deal than the word "Bitter". He can't hit the white woman; remember OJ. He can hit the white man. McCain is in trouble. I respect McCain, let me say, he has shown to be more Presidential than the former First Lady.
The Democrats won't have to steal the election. They have plenty of independents (myself included) to join them. We just need to show up in the large numbers we've demonstrated throughout the primaries.
Need I remind you that the Republicans stole the last two elections?
Should Barack Obama be elected (and I believe that he will be), I hope Congress presents him with election reform that will take private companies out of the business of processing votes and insures an accurate vote count in each election.
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BTW, Dean, Pelosi, and Reid ARE superdelegates...so to name them again is redundant.
Nicely broken down and analyzed almost to a T!
FTA:
And of course, Obama will not go into the General Election burdened by the towering Clinton negatives that her own negative campaign strategy increases daily.
Hillary would have had a much better chance had she taken Obama seriously from the get go, and hadn't chosen to use dirty politics as her guideline for victory!
This should be a lesson learned for ALL future elections, not just presidential, the country is tired of dirty politics and dirty politicians.
GO OBAMA!
Well Scott you should look at the numbers if you include Florida. Or have the dems decided that they do not have a say this year? Once you include them Hillary is ahead in both the pop vote and the electoral delegates. Take a look and let me know what you think.
She won't win Tang. This race will be between Obama and McCain...
I hate to break it to you but neither one of them will have enough delegates to win the nomination after the primaries are over. It will go to convention. It will be up to the superdelegates to decide. Not a good scenario for the Democratic Party.
I am aware of this. But she still can't mathematically pull it off...
...and BTW, if DNC chair Howard Dean has his way, the superdelegates will have already voted between the last primary at the beginning of June and the convention at the end of August.
My best guess is that the superdelegates will meet and the Democrats will be united this fall.
Have you seen the poll numbers when they asked if they would ever vote for the other candidate if the one they wanted lost? Huge number of no answers. And in one they were asked if they would vote for a joint ticket, but their choice was the veep, an overwhelming majority said no. It's ugly out there, my friend.
Do you really think that'll last wen the alternative of a possible McCain presidency sinks in?
And yes, most of us would choose someone other than the current opponent to complete the ticket, if our candidate won. But that's a very different scenario than giving McCain the presidency.
Yes, i do think that will last. And I think that many of the newly jazzed-up voters will sit on their butt on election day rather than go vote for the "other guy". Happens every election. even when you guys put up someone like The Mighty Goracle.
That's true that people get excited, then lose interest. But the possibility of Bush--er, McCain--winning will spur them to action.
"That's true that people get excited, then lose interest. But the possibility of Bush--er, McCain--winning will spur them to action."
See, not everybody is like the people you meet here on netscape. Most people don't blog all day about how bad "neocons" are or how much McCain and Bush are alike. Many of the Obama supporters will simply not vote rather than vote for Hillary OR McCain, and the same could be said about Hillary supporters.
I don't even like Hillary but I realize she has a better chance of winning key states like Ohio then Obama and anyone who doesn't realize this is a blind Obama supporter who would still support and defened the guy if he was caught with three dead hookers in his trunk with his DNA all over them...
"caught with three dead hookers in his trunk with his DNA all over them..."
That's low, newbie.
Obama may be inexperienced.... He may be shady.... He may be an arrogant ass.... He may lack any kind of good judgement whatsoever..... He may have a bitter shrew for a wife, crooked friends and associates and a blatantly racist, militant preacher.... He may drone on about "Hope" even though there isn't a SPLINTER of hope at this point that he'll ever gain the presidency....
But to accuse him of ripping a page out of Bill Clinton's playbook.... well it's just cruel, that's what it is.
Obama will beat McCain. He has a much better chance than Clinton:
ob WHAT?
The Swiftboaters are salivating at the prospects of Obama being the Dem nominee, they've already started in NC. But they are holding their breath because Clinton is coming on strong possibly ruining the field day they would have with Obama!
Clinton has won Pa. by 220,000 votes. Of the Clinton supporters 26% will vote for McCain if Obama is the Dem nominee and 19% would stay home. If you know anything about statistics & probabilities that's actual proof Obama will not win Pennsylvania. No democrat can win the presidency without Penn & Ohio and the supers if they want a chance to beat McCain have to support the most electable candidate.
"If you know anything about statistics & probabilities that's actual proof..."
Actual PROOF??? LOL!! How about knowing something about politics and human nature? Those statistics are useless barometers of how voters are feeling about it RIGHT NOW.
After the primary is settled and the media and the voters start to zoom in on McCain and his Keating connections, lobbying cronies, his "stay the course" Bushian foreign policy positions, and his total ignorance of the common family's problems, the repugs will be electorally crushed. Americans want their country back.
Here's a headline:
"Big states are BIG because they have BIG cities"..
BIG cities have a LOT of minorities..
THIS will be the first election since Kennedy when minorities actually believe (and rightfully so) that their vote can get someone elected who cares about them, and the TRUE American Dream, not the one that represents the greedy, selfish, crooked and powerful...
California: LA, San Diego, San Fran.
Pennsylvania: (where Philly will outvote the miserable west)
Missouri: (where the spirit of St. Louis will outvote the misery of Kansas City)
Ohio: Cleveland (thankfully they will outvote Cincinnati, which is virtually in grey state territory)
Illinois: Chicago
Michigan: Detroit
Florida:Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and Jacksonville, where they will outvote the deep south Tampa and the elite Palm Beachers. (you know the ones who put Cong. Foley in office)
All Obama needs is the Hispanic votes in some of those
borderline cities like LA and San Diego and Miami, hence McCain's pro-open borders position..
He needs to pander to the Hispanics to even have a small chance that America thinks the past 8 years haven't been horrific.
Compared to the economy in Mexico we're still above the disaster level.
This is likely why Richardson will be his VP.
By the way, you are a blind Republican even if they have no DNA and suck the blood of our future generations..
But don't forget to hate him, before you decide to love him.
(the rest of you did)
Don't forget to lobby for another Cheney-like fascist for VP
so we can go to war in Iran and leave Afghanistan unfinished.
THAT ought to further distract us from the next depression!
You people are geniuses.
Hey Cake,
This is likely why Richardson will be his VP.
How silly is that.
The Latinos will vote for Obama because Richardson a latino
Richardson's pulling a benedict Arnold on the Clintons
did not endear him to anyone especially the latino's
That's like saying I'd vote for Bernaette Dorne or Bill Ayers because I'm Anglo. It's the person not the ethnicity
I am one of those who will vote for JMC if Hillary is not the nominee. I will not only vote for him, but, like I am doing for Hillary, I will financially contribute to his campaign. I'd rather have an experienced republican president than a rookie rock-star wannabe democrat.
Thankfully, you are in a very small minority.
People like you would have prevented Kennedy from getting elected. Where's the logic?
Where are your priorities?
How about a charismatic aggressive President for a country that calls itself the "greatest in the world"?
Why do you settle for so little?
More war, higher gas prices, more pollution..these are the people in control now..and you would support more of it??
Hmm.
FL and MI decided that they would not have a say this year when they scheduled their primaries.
You're not worried about angry Florida and Michigan voters turning to McCain? Let me know how that works out for ya.
The party can't renege on the rules and consequences of ignoring them that it laid out at the start. Otherwise this could happen again.
How could they seat them fairly, anyway? The only one who crossed the picket line and campaigned in them was Hillary, so if anything she should pay a price for that, not be handed a blank state or two.
No, I am not worried that anger will make them vote for McCain. Anger is what McCain will be running against, not whichever Dem gets the nod. They will replace their state party leaders that allowed this fiasco to occur (for reasons that are now obviously arse-backwards), as well they should.
If I remember correctly, the DNC said it would not seat Florida's delegates. But the "super-delegates" CAN consider the popular vote of Florida in deciding whom they will support without violating the rules, which to me seems rediculous anyway. After all, since when does a non-elected committee have the right to tell individual states when they can hold elections (and that goes for both the Democrates and the Republicans) and then punish them for not towing the line?
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This is one of the best assessments I've read on the Democratic primary race...
And I believe this is just hitting the wires.
http://paeditorsblog.blogspot.com/2008/04/voter...
BTW, good story Scott.
She doesn't plan to alter the math at this point. She's playing to alter the rules.
She doesn't need to alter the rules. Despite using terms that suggest otherwise, there is no such thing as a truly "pledged" delegate in the DNC. Any delegate can vote for any candidate. What Hillary is trying to do is make the case that while Obama MIGHT win, she WILL win. If the polling numbers are to be believed in states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, and even New York, then she is correct. Obama national % splits in such a way that he might pick off New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado from the GOP, but he will lose Michigan, New Jersey, and possibly Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and (longshot) New York. He is not at all competitive in Florida.
I don't know which Florida you are thinking about. The one I know, Hillary isn't all that. She can play that bluff, its up there with the bullets, but in a real race in the state, I bet she loses by 30 points.
Clinton would win a revote in Florida by more than she did the first time when Obama wasn't exposed. Face the facts, 1)all the way down to Vero is red neck country and the good old boys don't exactly fancy Obama 2) Florida has the highest % of retired people in the nation Penn. is 2nd & they go for Clinton 70-30 3)The heavy Jewish in S. Florida like in other states is Clinton's 4) Coconut Grove heavy Spanish from Lauderdale on down is a Clinton slam dunk!
The blacks as they always do will go with Obama but his other constituency the student block will be too busy partying down there to support an exposed candidate like Obama as the bloom is off the rose!
I don't know any super delegate willing to endorse a candidate on the basis of an "I'm more electable" argument, when all the facts point otherwise.
Check this out:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Clinton=pink, Obama=brown, Blue=dem vote doesn't matter
Hillary is a possessed woman! She thinks she has to be the President, because she is destined to be one. She will fabricate, obfuscate, cheat, lie and do anything to get that Presidency.
This feeling of entitlement has caused her to lose all common sense, logic, honesty, decency and has become a demogogue! That is how dynasties are born. We have an example of one such brown star of a dynasty ruining our nation for the past 8 years. He has totally smashed a country to pieces, that took 230 years to build.
Hillary is no different. She is a Dumbya in a suit pant!
She has probably a lot of Machiavellian plans hiding in her briefcase.
I will have to say "We have had enough of the Clintons and Bushes. We do not want to see another one of these again!